References & Additional Reading
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LLP & Zero Tolerance
Low levels of genetically modified crops in international food and feed trade: FAO international survey and economic analysis
This study, prepared for an FAO Technical Consultation on Low Levels of Genetically Modified Crops in International Food and Feed Trade, reviews current production, trade, and regulation of GM food crops, and estimates the impact of LLP on trade flow.
Download PDFThe results of the FAO survey on low levels of genetically modified (GM) crops in international food and feed trade.
This document is a simple compilation of the results of the FAO international survey on low level presence, related regulations and risk assessment, conducted between February and June 2013.
Download PDFLow levels of GM crops in food and feed: Regulatory issues
The paper describes trade-related incidents involving low levels of genetically modified (GM) crops. It discusses the relevant terminology, food and feed regulatory and policy issues, the needs and concerns of developing countries, and possible future trends that may affect the frequency and type of incidents.
Download PDFLow levels of GM crops in international food and feed trade: FAO international survey and economic analysis
This study first reviews the current situation of GM crops in terms of production, trade and related regulations, analyses the responses to a survey administered by FAO, and explains how to examine the impact of GM-related regulations and LLP on trade flow.
Download PDFFinding Common Ground: A detailed status report on low level presence seed policy development in Europe, the United States and internationally
Seed WorldThis article describes the ways that low level presence continues to be an issue for the seed industry, and zero thresholds challenge trade. Two trends make the need for policies that outline threshold or common testing standards more acute than ever: the rapidly increasing cultivation of GM seeds globally and the increasing global trade of seeds.
Download PDFHow low can you go? The consequences of zero tolerance
AgBioForumThis article uses two case studies related to the regulation of GM materials in the EU to examine the implications of zero tolerance. Given that zero tolerance imposes considerable externalities on non-EU agri-food sectors as well as in the EU itself, it may be time to re-examine zero tolerance in an informed way.
Download PDFLow-Level Presence of New GM Crops: An Issue on the Rise for Countries Where They Lack Approval
AgBioForumThis paper is a compilation and analysis of a global pipeline of GM crops that may be commercialized by 2015. Likely LLP scenarios are discussed.
Download PDFThe global pipeline of new GM crops: Implications of asynchronous approval for international trade
European Commission, Joint Research CentreThis paper forecasts the future evolution of LLP based on a global pipeline of new GM crops was established. If problems with LLP have occurred in the past, these are likely to intensify for actors in the global agri-food chain, especially the economic risk of rejections of shipments at the EU border.
Download PDFBiosafety Protocol
The price and trade effects of strict information requirements for genetically modified commodities under the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety
IFPRI Discussion PaperThis paper assesses the global economic implications of the proposed strict documentation requirements on traded shipments of potentially genetically modified (GM) commodities under the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety. While non-GM producers in Protocol member countries would benefit from this regulation, consumers and producers in many developing countries would have to pay a proportionally much heftier price for such a measure
Download PDFInternational Trade Policies
Low levels of GM crops in international food and feed trade: FAO international survey and economic analysis
This study first reviews the current situation of GM crops in terms of production, trade and related regulations, analyses the responses to a survey administered by FAO, and explains how to examine the impact of GM-related regulations and LLP on trade flow.
Download PDFNew and Existing GM Crops: In Search of Effective Stewardship and Coexistence
Carter, C. A. and G.P. Gruère Northeastern University Law JournalThis paper examines the U.S. regulatory system regarding accidental contamination from both regulated and deregulated genetically modified (GM) crops. Procedures for approving and managing GM crops in the U.S. could be improved at a relatively low cost compared to the potential economic damage of further market disruptions.
Download PDFWho Pays the Costs of Non-Gmo Segregation and Identity Preservation?
American Journal of Agricultural EconomicsThis paper explores who pays the costs and who reaps the benefits of maintaining a dual-market system of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) and non-GMOs. Making alternative assumptions of competitive and then monopolistic supply, we recognize that identity preservation (IP) of non-GMOs creates costs for IP and non-IP producers.
Download PDFGlobal Welfare and Trade-Related Regulations of GM Food: Biosafety, Markets, and Politics
Agricultural and Applied Economics Association 2010 Annual MeetingThis paper presents an overview of current and upcoming trade related regulations of genetically modified (GM) food, and analyzes their effects on trade, consumers, and producers. Using a three-country analytical model of welfare and political interests, the study assesses the economic effects and motivation behind the adoption of import approval regulations, information requirements for GM commodity shipments, and GM food marketing policies.
Download PDFGM-free private standards and their effects on biosafety decisionmaking in developing countries
Food PolicyThis paper provides a comprehensive review of international cases where GM-free private standards set up by food companies in developed countries have influenced biosafety policymaking in developing countries. These cases are based on two generally misleading premises: the belief that Europe or Japan represents the only market for exports, and the perception that non-GM segregation is infeasible or prohibitively costly in all situations.
Download PDFGMO Testing Strategies and Implications for Trade: A Game Theoretic Approach
This paper examines the implications of measurement uncertainty associated with GMO testing on the behavior of importers and exporters in a game theoretic framework. The results indicate that relative size of identity preservation costs, testing and rejection costs, the premiums offered in the non-GM markets and measurement uncertainty all have direct impacts on the behavior of importers and exporters.
Download PDFGMO Regulations, International Trade and the Imperialism of Standards
LICOS Discussion PaperThis paper deals with the quantification of GMO regulations on bilateral trade flows, taking into account the complexity of such regulations for sixty countries. Results show that bilateral distance in GMO regulations negatively affect trade flows, especially as an effect of labeling policies, approval process and traceability systems.
Download PDFPatterns and determinants of GMO regulations: An overview of recent evidence
AgBioForumThis article provides a systematic review of the existing evidence on how countries set standards on genetically modified food, their subsequent economic effects, and implications for policy. It brings together a summary of published evidence on patterns of GMO regulation and their determinants, as well as their economics implications for trade and firms’ global strategy.
Go to ArticleThe global pipeline of GM crops out to 2020
The global pipeline of GM crops out to 2020 Nature BiotechnologyThis journal article, which provides an up-to-date inventory of new GM crops in the research and development pipeline globally, also discusses the probability of future incidents of low-level presence of unapproved GM material in crop shipments. The number of GM events is projected to increase, especially the number available products with stacked events, which may result in more cases of asynchronous approval or isolated foreign approvals.
Go to ArticleRegulatory Differences in the Approval of GMOs: Extent and Development over Time
Regulatory Differences in the Approval of GMOs: Extent and Development over Time World Trade ReviewThis paper assesses the extent of asymmetry in the authorizations of new genetically modified organism (GMO) events between importing and exporting countries. Results indicate that the major trade leaders have synchronized their approval status for GMOs over time, when focusing only on commercialized events and considering only regulatory approval differences in which the importers are more stringent than the exporters. Some countries seem to face higher potential for trade disruption than others.
Go to ArticleGenetic Engineering and Food Security: A Welfare Economics Perspective
Genetic Engineering and Food Security: A Welfare Economics Perspective Food Security in an Uncertain WorldThis chapter analyzes economic implications of genetic engineering for food security with a focus on GM rice. An ex-ante analysis of the introduction of a GM rice variety in major rice exporting and importing countries within the framework of a partial equilibrium trade model is used to discuss the asynchronous nature of genetically modified (GM) crop regulation and labeling requirements among countries. It estimates potential gains and losses to consumers and producers, finding a positive economic surplus for major exporters and importers of rice based on a 5% supply increase with a GM rice variety.
Go to ArticleInternational Trade Disputes & Disruptions
The trade dispute about genetically engineered products: Argentina against the European communities
AgBioForumFrom 1998 to 2003, the European Commission (EC) applied a de facto moratorium on the approval of new genetically engineered products, which was eventually found to be inconsistent with EC obligations under basic trade agreements. This remarkable dispute has shown i) the increasing role of science on trade issues, ii) how the concept of precaution may lead to trade disruptions, and iii) the sound operation of the WTO dispute settlement system.
Download PDFThe European Union policy of zero tolerance: Insights from the discovery of CDC Triffid
University of SaskatchewanThis paper examines the changes in the flaxseed industry and the linseed oil industry following the EU import ban on Canadian flaxseed due to the adventitious presence of a GM flax variety. The EU’s zero tolerance policy on CDC Triffid flax has resulted in a larger additional cost on the EU than Canada.
Download PDFOn the asynchronous approvals of GM crops: Potential market impacts of a trade disruption of EU soy imports
This paper simulates the impact of Argentina, Brazil and the United States ending soybean exports to the EU. The effects of a trade ban are found to be less profound than in many other studies due to compensating substitution effects at various market levels: increasing imports from third countries, increasing domestic oilseed production and the use of other protein feeds.
Download PDFMarket and Welfare Effects of Trade Disruption from Unapproved Biotech Crops
This paper examines the potential market and welfare impacts from trade disruptions that might be caused by asynchronous regulatory approvals of new GM crops, by developing a trade model consisting of two composite importing countries and one exporting country. Asynchronous approvals tend to increase prices, reduce consumer surplus and increase profits of producers of identity preserved commodities in all countries.
Download PDFEmpirical evidence on the trade impact of asynchronous regulatory approval of new GMO events
Food PolicyThis paper analyses the trade impact of asynchronous regulatory approval of new genetically modified organism (GMO) events. It assesses the extent of asynchronicity and relative strictness of the GMO approval authorizations and presents a differentiated view on the trade impact of asynchronous approval that focuses not only on the existence of regulations but also on their restrictiveness. The results show that asynchronous approval has negatively impacted trade flows of cotton, maize and soybeans.
Go to ArticleThe Potential Economic Impacts of Delayed Biotech Innovation in Soybeans
Economics and Management of Agrobiotechnology Center (EMAC) Working Paper #2015-1, University of MissouriThis study analyzes the economic impact of a delay in the commercialization and adoption of new soybean technologies caused by regulatory delays and asynchronies across key importing countries. When these new soybeans are approved and commercialized in a timely fashion the economic benefits from their adoption are large and all market participants benefit, both producers and consumers. In scenarios where the new traits are delayed in reaching the market, economic benefits are reduced and their distribution can be changed as well, with consumers losing a disproportionate share of the welfare gains.
Download PDFSupply Chain Analysis
Competitors co-operating: Establishing a supply chain to manage genetically modified canola
International Food and Agribusiness Management ReviewThis paper examines the use of identify preserved production and marketing systems in the Canadian canola industry to segregate varieties with different traits from the commodity stream and direct them toward accepted markets. A number of systems developed for input-trait GM canola are examined, with a focus on the governance mechanisms used.
Download PDFCosts and Risks of Testing and Segregating Genetically Modified Wheat
This paper identifies an optimal testing strategy for genetically modified (GM) crops within the grain marketing system. The model includes elements of costs and risks of adventitious commingling at all stages of the marketing chain, variety declaration, grower truth-telling, and accuracy of testing technologies.
Download PDFNorth American Biotech Trade Policies
Government of Canada proposed domestic policy on the management of low-level presence of genetically modified crops in imports and its associated implementation framework
This document outlines the Canadian government’s proposed Policy and Framework for managing occurrences of LLP. It describes risk management approaches to addressing LLP occurrences and specifies conditions that would enforcement action on imported food and feed products.
Download PDFQuantification of low-level GM seed presence in Canadian commercial flax stocks
AgBioForumThis article presents is a simple statistical approach for the quantification of low levels of GM contamination, based on simulation modeling. The method is demonstrated using the low level of contamination in Canadian commercial flax stocks by the GM flax variety “Triffid” but the approach can be modified to match any sampling regime.
Download PDFAdventitious presence of GMOS: Scientific overview for Canadian grains. Canadian Journal of Plant Sciences
Canadian Journal of Plant SciencesThis article identifies GM events which have received regulatory approval in Canada, as well as cases of unapproved adventitious presence of GM materials that have impacted grain trading and handling in Canada and other countries. It includes a review of threshold and tolerance policies to manage adventitious presence of GMOs in different countries, detection and sampling methods that are involved, and remaining challenges.
Download PDFEconomic implications of low-level presence in a zero-tolerance European import market: The case of Canadian Triffid flax.
AgBioForumThis article documents Canadian costs of the Triffid flax issue as an example of low level presence (LLP) of an unapproved transformation event in a zero-tolerance European market. It explores/evaluates the impacts (economic and social costs) on the Canadian industry and provides insights as to how farmers manage LLP on-farm.
Download PDFDeveloping a policy for low-level presence (LLP): A Canadian case study
AgBioForumThis article describes the government-industry collaborative model that the Canadian government is developing. It includes a domestic regulatory policy to manage LLP from imports and building international collaborations to raise awareness of the impacts of LLP on trade globally.
Download PDFCosts and Risks of Segregating GM Wheat in Canada
Canadian Journal of Agricultural EconomicsThe authors propose an analytical model to explore prospective costs and risks of alternative testing strategies for a marketing system in Canada which markets both genetically modified (GM) and Non-GM wheat. Factors considered include: base case results, sensitivities, added costs, protocols for testing, and inherent risks for buyers and sellers.
Download PDFFinding Common Ground: A detailed status report on low level presence seed policy development in Europe, the United States and internationally
Seed WorldThis article describes the ways that low level presence continues to be an issue for the seed industry, and zero thresholds challenge trade. Two trends make the need for policies that outline threshold or common testing standards more acute than ever: the rapidly increasing cultivation of GM seeds globally and the increasing global trade of seeds.
Download PDFPolicy Model – Managing Low Level Presence of Genetically Modified Crops in Imported Grain, Food and Feed
Policy Model – Managing Low Level Presence of Genetically Modified Crops in Imported Grain, Food and Feed Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada WebsiteThe Government of Canada released its model policy on low-level presence (LLP) for plant biotechnology in September 2016, calling for a proactive, limited food and feed safety assessment and establishing a 3 percent threshold level for cumulative events. Further, it defined that no regulatory or enforcement action would be taken for LLP at or below 0.2 percent. While the Canadian government is not immediately enforcing this policy in its own jurisdiction, they are using it as a tool to drive the discussion on LLP, specifically highlighting that there are solutions that fit within existing national regulations, such as the model policy shows.
Download PDFEuropean Biotech Trade Policies
Economic implications of low-level presence in a zero-tolerance European import market: The case of Canadian Triffid flax.
AgBioForumThis article documents Canadian costs of the Triffid flax issue as an example of low level presence (LLP) of an unapproved transformation event in a zero-tolerance European market. It explores/evaluates the impacts (economic and social costs) on the Canadian industry and provides insights as to how farmers manage LLP on-farm.
Download PDFEU policy on GMOs: a quick scan of the economic consequences. LEI Report 2008-070
Wageningen University and Research CentreThe paper describes the growth of cultivation of genetically modified (GM) crops and increasing difficulties due to asynchronous EU approval of GM crops, coupled with a zero tolerance threshold for the presence of GMOs not yet approved in the EU. This report argues that in the near future problems will become more urgent, negatively affecting the EU supply of raw materials and economic position of the European agricultural and food sector.
Download PDFEconomic Impacts of Low Level Presence of not yet approved GMOs on the EU Food Sector
This paper explores the economic impact of the zero tolerance policy for the low level presence (LLP) of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) not yet approved in the EU on the food sector. The policy has already had a negative impact on parts of the EU food sector, and is likely to get progressively worse.
Download PDFEconomic impact of unapproved GMOs on EU feed imports and livestock production (DG AGRI Report)
This paper describes the economic impacts of unapproved GMOs, including the possibility that imports may slow down considerably or come to a halt, due to the risk of having traces of EU non-authorised GMOs detected in their shipments. Potential import market impacts include possible shortages in supply and the need for switching to alternative products of inferior quality and/or higher prices.
Download PDFStudy on the Implications of asynchronous GMO approvals for EU imports of animal feed products
The study describes the implications of asynchronous approvals for genetically modified organisms (GMOs) that are imported to the European Union (EU) for use within animal feed products, specifically with regard to the EU livestock sector, as well as upon the upstream and downstream economic industries related to it.
Download PDFThe cost of low level presence of GMOs in food products in Europe
This study explores the economic impact on the European food sector of the low level presence (LLP) of non-EU approved genetically modified organisms (GMOs) in food and food ingredients. It is a real-life analysis of the actual challenges and impacts faced by companies affected by the LLP issue, and models the potential wider costs of such incidents on the basis of actual experience.
Download PDFEU import restrictions on genetically modified feeds: impacts on Spanish, EU and global livestock sectors
Spanish Journal of Agricultural ResearchThis study quantitatively assesses the impact of a hypothetical EU import ban on unapproved GMO varieties of soybean and maize imports on livestock, meat and dairy sectors. It concludes that the EU must urgently find a long term strategy for GMOs if it is to reconcile political expediency with pragmatic economic concerns.
Download PDFEconomic aspects of segregation between GM and non-GM crops in Italy
AgBioForumThis article assesses the food supply chain for non-GM soybean meal, with particular regard to the upstream stages between overseas producers, international trading companies, and their supply to Italian feed producers. The organizational arrangements that agents adopt to minimize transaction costs, including those related to segregation and labeling, are described.
Download PDFFinding Common Ground: A detailed status report on low level presence seed policy development in Europe, the United States and internationally
Seed WorldThis article describes the ways that low level presence continues to be an issue for the seed industry, and zero thresholds challenge trade. Two trends make the need for policies that outline threshold or common testing standards more acute than ever: the rapidly increasing cultivation of GM seeds globally and the increasing global trade of seeds.
Download PDFThe trade dispute about genetically engineered products: Argentina against the European communities
AgBioForumFrom 1998 to 2003, the European Commission (EC) applied a de facto moratorium on the approval of new genetically engineered products, which was eventually found to be inconsistent with EC obligations under basic trade agreements. This remarkable dispute has shown i) the increasing role of science on trade issues, ii) how the concept of precaution may lead to trade disruptions, and iii) the sound operation of the WTO dispute settlement system.
Download PDFThe European Union policy of zero tolerance: Insights from the discovery of CDC Triffid
University of SaskatchewanThis paper examines the changes in the flaxseed industry and the linseed oil industry following the EU import ban on Canadian flaxseed due to the adventitious presence of a GM flax variety. The EU’s zero tolerance policy on CDC Triffid flax has resulted in a larger additional cost on the EU than Canada.
Download PDFOn the asynchronous approvals of GM crops: Potential market impacts of a trade disruption of EU soy imports
This paper simulates the impact of Argentina, Brazil and the United States ending soybean exports to the EU. The effects of a trade ban are found to be less profound than in many other studies due to compensating substitution effects at various market levels: increasing imports from third countries, increasing domestic oilseed production and the use of other protein feeds.
Download PDFEuropean Research Finds Coexistence of GM and non-GM Products is Possible
This article summarizes research into the implementation and cost of coexistence strategies for farmers, agri-food supply chain operators and consumers. It finds that the current measures implemented to ensure coexistence of GM and non-GM crops in the EU are practically feasible, both at farm level and along the supply chain. However, these measures come with additional costs, which are partly paid by consumers and other supply chain stakeholders.
Download PDFAsia/Pacific Biotech Trade Policies
GM crop technology and trade restraints: Economic implications for Australia and New Zealand
Austr. J. Agric. Resource EconThis paper uses a model to estimate effects of other countries’ GM policies without and with ANZ farmers adopting GM varieties of various grains and oilseeds. The gross economic benefits to ANZ from adopting GM crops under a variety of scenarios could be positive even if the strict controls on imports from GM-adopting countries by the European Union are maintained, but not if North-East Asia also applied such trade restraints.
Download PDFAsynchronous approvals of GM products and the Codex Annex: What low level presence policy for Vietnam?
International Food & Agricultural Trade Policy CouncilThis paper analyzes the economic effects of policy options under the Codex Annex on Low Level Presence (LLP) to manage the risk of trade disruption with asynchronous approval of genetically modified (GM) products, focusing on Vietnam, a significant GM feed importer in the process of introducing its biosafety regulations. Maintaining a zero tolerance level for unapproved GM events would impose significant annual welfare costs for Vietnam, but any non-zero tolerance level would reduce these costs significantly.
Download PDFAsynchronous approvals of GM products, price inflation, and the Codex annex: What low level presence policy for APEC countries?
Gruere, G.P.This paper models the economic effects of different implementation options of the Codex Annex for simplified risk assessment, and applies it to countries of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC). It assesses the potential implementation costs of different options that these countries should consider.
Download PDFGenetically modified food and international trade. The case of India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and the Philippines
IFPRI Discussion PaperThis paper studies the potential effects of introducing GM food crops in Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, and the Philippines in the presence of trade-related regulations of GM food in major importers. The results show that the gains associated with the adoption of GM food crops largely exceed any type of potential trade losses, and that segregation of non-GM crops can help reduce any potential trade loss for GM adopters that want to keep export opportunities in sensitive countries.
Download PDFTrade and Economic Implications of Low Level Presence and Asynchronous Authorizations of Agricultural Biotechnology Varieties: A Case Study in China
International Association of Agricultural Economists 2012 ConferenceTrade disruptions due to China’s zero threshold approach to LLP could impact domestic prices, the livestock sector and overall social welfare. Trade disruptions could also arise from GM crops developed and commercialized in China because approval of these GM crop events is not being sought in any foreign country.
Download PDFAfrican Biotech Trade Policies
Reviewing South Africa’s marketing and trade related policies for genetically modified products
Development Southern AfricaThis paper analyses the history and evolving changes in marketing and trade policies for GM products in South Africa, demonstrating the success of its flexible regulatory system. Five policy recommendations are made to improve rather than rigidify regulations and allow South Africa to adapt to global changes, manage risks and take advantage of potentially promising new GM technologies.
Download PDFLatin American Biotech Trade Policies
Low Level Presence (LLP) in Seed Hemispheric Workshop
Inter-American Institute for Cooperation on AgricultureThe paper describes challenges to governments to include these GM seed varieties within current seed regulations, including a table of country-specific LLP issues and how they have been addressed. Transboundary seed movement in Latin American countries need for production and research off season becomes vulnerable to severe restrictions or poor regulation.
Download PDFPotential economic impacts of asynchronous approvals of GM crops on Latin American countries
International Food & Agricultural Trade Policy CouncilThis regional case study examines trade of maize, soy and soybeans and processed products occurs through a dense network of exchanges crisscrossing the continent. While there have only been a few cases of trade disruption resulting from regulatory asynchronicity to date, the potential for such disruption is likely to increase, with significant economic implications.
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Implementation of a Traceability and Certification System for Non-genetically Modified Soybeans: The Experience of Imcopa Co. in Brazil
International Food and Agribusiness Management ReviewThis paper analyses a productive opportunity taken by a family-owned Brazilian soybean crusher as it adapted its production system to sell certified non-GM soybeans products. The analysis adopted here is based on a microeconomic perspective of productive opportunities: benefit-cost ratio; information asymmetry; bounded rationality; and company’s growth.
Download PDFThe trade dispute about genetically engineered products: Argentina against the European communities
AgBioForumFrom 1998 to 2003, the European Commission (EC) applied a de facto moratorium on the approval of new genetically engineered products, which was eventually found to be inconsistent with EC obligations under basic trade agreements. This remarkable dispute has shown i) the increasing role of science on trade issues, ii) how the concept of precaution may lead to trade disruptions, and iii) the sound operation of the WTO dispute settlement system.
Download PDF